Only what can be checked — wrong days included.

Only the closes and changes of two Korean equity indices (Kospi and Kosdaq), statistical ranges (80% and 90%) for a coming close, the actual hit record of those ranges, macro indicators from public data that may be redistributed, and official calendar notices. No individual company or security is covered.

Each range is a statistical range for the close two trading days after the base date's close. Because the source data is published on the next business day (T+1), the first of those two trading days may already be under way when the range is published. It says nothing about direction.

An exponentially weighted moving standard deviation (decay 0.94) of daily log moves, with the range ends set from the empirical quantiles of standardized moves over the last three years (up to 756 trading days). With fewer than 60 samples, normal quantiles are used. A range is a statistical description of the size of moves and says nothing about direction.

Each range is sealed in a hash-chained ledger before the target day's open and scored after the target close is published. Nothing is edited or removed after publication, and wrong days stay in. Recomputation over past periods is labelled separately as 'retrospective recomputation (not prospective)'. Intervals are 95% Wilson intervals.

• The source is published on the next business day (T+1), so the target is usually two trading days after the base date; the first of those days may be under way when the range is published.
• Days outside the range can cluster in turbulent periods.
• Consecutive ranges overlap by a day, so hits are not independent.
• A rate over few scored days is not a basis for judgment.

• Financial Services Commission (Korea), market index price information (Korea public data portal dataset 15094807; no restriction on permitted use)
• U.S. Energy Information Administration, weekly crude oil stocks (open data; U.S. federal public domain)
• Calendar: each official institution's notice (linked in every brief)
• Computed in house from the public sources only

Every figure carries its source and as-of date underneath.

This site publishes statistical descriptions for information only. It is not investment advice and not a solicitation or an offer of any financial product. Past statistics do not indicate future outcomes. All investment decisions, and their outcomes, are the user's own responsibility.

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