Whether the published ranges held — wrong days included.
Ranges are sealed before the target day's open and scored after the target close is published. Nothing is edited or removed after publication. The first table is the prospective record; the same method recomputed over past data is kept apart as 'retrospective recomputation (not prospective)'.
- Scored days
- 0
- 80% inside
- 0 (— · 95% Wilson interval —)
- 90% inside
- 0 (— · 95% Wilson interval —)
- Badge
- 80% unknown · 90% unknown
- Ranges published
- 1
- Trading days without a range
- 0 / 1
No day has been scored yet, so there is no basis for a hit rate.
- Scored days
- 0
- 80% inside
- 0 (— · 95% Wilson interval —)
- 90% inside
- 0 (— · 95% Wilson interval —)
- Badge
- 80% unknown · 90% unknown
- Ranges published
- 1
- Trading days without a range
- 0 / 1
No day has been scored yet, so there is no basis for a hit rate.
The same method re-applied to past data
This table is not a record of ranges published in advance. It is recomputed from past data starting 2021-01-01; being computed after the method was chosen, it must not be read with the same weight as the prospective record. Horizon: 2 trading days.
- Scored days
- 1,410
- 80% inside
- 1,138 (80.7% · 95% Wilson interval 78.6% ~ 82.7%)
- 90% inside
- 1,286 (91.2% · 95% Wilson interval 89.6% ~ 92.6%)
- Badge
- 80% 과거 재계산(겹침 창·구간 낙관) · 90% 과거 재계산(겹침 창·구간 낙관)
| Year | n | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 245 | 80.4% | 91.8% |
| 2022 | 246 | 78.9% | 94.3% |
| 2023 | 245 | 78.4% | 89.0% |
| 2024 | 244 | 83.2% | 92.6% |
| 2025 | 242 | 82.2% | 88.0% |
| 2026 | 188 | 81.4% | 91.5% |
- Scored days
- 1,410
- 80% inside
- 1,128 (80.0% · 95% Wilson interval 77.8% ~ 82.0%)
- 90% inside
- 1,272 (90.2% · 95% Wilson interval 88.6% ~ 91.7%)
- Badge
- 80% 과거 재계산(겹침 창·구간 낙관) · 90% 과거 재계산(겹침 창·구간 낙관)
| Year | n | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 245 | 78.8% | 88.2% |
| 2022 | 246 | 80.1% | 91.9% |
| 2023 | 245 | 79.6% | 89.8% |
| 2024 | 244 | 83.6% | 93.0% |
| 2025 | 242 | 76.9% | 86.8% |
| 2026 | 188 | 81.4% | 92.0% |
Badge: 'unknown' when no day is scored; 'nominal inside interval' when the nominal rate (80% / 90%) lies inside the 95% Wilson interval, otherwise 'nominal outside interval'. Consecutive ranges overlap by a day, so hits are not independent; the Wilson interval assumes independence. Method & limits →